Kenyans are deeply divided over Raila Odinga’s political future ahead of the 2027 general elections, with only a minority expecting him to support President William Ruto’s re-election bid.
According to a recent national survey by TIFA, conducted between May 2–6, 2025, 28% of Kenyans believe that the former Prime Minister will rejoin the opposition and contest the presidency, while 23% expect him to support President Ruto’s re-election. Another 18% anticipate that Raila will back a different opposition candidate, while 14% think he will retire from active politics. A notable 16% remain uncertain about his plans.
The poll also asked the public opinion on the Broad-Based Government (BBG) the informal political alliance between President Ruto and Odinga. Support for the BBG remains low, with only 22% of Kenyans expressing approval, compared to 54% who oppose it. 25% either declined to respond or had no opinion.
Regionally, Central Rift President Ruto’s stronghold, shows the highest support for the BBG at 37 percent, followed by Northern Kenya at 35 percent. In contrast, support is lowest in Mt. Kenya and Lower Eastern, registering at just 13 and 12 percent, respectively.
In these same regions, opposition to the Broad-based is strong at 72 percent in Mt. Kenya and 58 percent in Lower Eastern.
Public perception of the country’s trajectory is similarly clear, with 75% of respondents saying Kenya is heading in the wrong direction, citing high costs of living, poor leadership, and unemployment as the top concerns.
